Forecasting Models for National Economic Planning


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Secondly, the method proposed by Mutanov has been verified by applying to the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with her vibrant emerging economy.

Forecasting Models for National Economic Planning

Thirdly, Chapter 5 of the book is of particular interest for the computer technology community because it deals with innovation. In summary, the book of Mutanov should become one of the outstanding recognized pragmatic guides for dealing with innovative systems. This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability.

The book is an illuminating study based on an applied mathematical model which uses methods such as linear programming and input-output analysis. From both theoretical and practical standpoint, this work is indeed a great achievement.

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Andrzej Rucinski, University of New Hampshire This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability. Table of Contents Frontmatter Chapter 1. Mathematical Methods of Budget Modeling Abstract. This chapter presents a complex of models used to analyze and forecast the flow of budget financial resources. Current calculations and long-term forecasting of budget indicators are the instrument of realization of strategic development plans.

Traditional methods of budget program planning are still widely used: they include planning based on rated standards specified by the superior bodies or by changing dynamics of the previous periods. However, the development of information technologies IT , requirements of market economy and high pace of development give rise to new, highly intellectual, precise analytical and planning models.

The semantic and frame-based models suggested in the monograph create the mathematical base for automated system control. The author was the first in the world to develop the mathematical budget model which with mathematical exactness reflects properties and conditions at any budget level.

The end result is used as a landmark which enables to estimate achievability of the predetermined level under certain limitations in budget funds and budget potential determined for the moment of the medium-term planning. The principles of designing of an intellectual system modeling program control of budget resources and enabling to correct the obtained decision by adjustment of the system of indicators are described.

New knowledge often arises at the intersection of different scientific schools when well-known laws of one science adapted to and interpreted by the other science enable to look at the studied phenomenon at the other angle. An example is application of the thermodynamical approach to the mathematical description and business system management focused on the decrease in their entropy and increase in productive efficiency. A theoretical approach proposed by the author becomes even more valuable as the national theory and practice do not contain any developments in the assessment of business system efficiency based on the energy-entropic method.

The universality of the proposed method is based on the fact that all systems of the material world—wildlife and inanimate nature, technology and production are arenas of ever-present changes in the amounts of energy and entropy, studying of which can give new knowledge of laws governing functioning and development of such systems. This research shows scientifically-based application of the energy-entropic method to the assessment of economic efficiency of any production.

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BUSINESS FORECASTING

In the fourth chapter there is an analyzes of methods and mathematical models of the processes taking place in the foreign exchange market. The mathematical model of the balance of exchange rates is proposed in this work, conducted its analysis, formulated and solved the problem of the balance. The developed collocational models have a great versatility and allow us to solve the problems of forecasting of exchange market.

The estimates of expected rates may be obtained by the extrapolation method. Sufficiently substantiated information helps us to solve the problem of determining the sequence of closed transactions of purchase and sale of currencies that lead to the speculating income. As with any forecast, time will tell.

Economic Forecasting: How to Predict the Future

The challenges and subjective human behavioral aspects of economic forecasting are not limited to the government. Economic forecasters have a history of neglecting to foresee crises. Loungani said this inability to spot imminent downturns is reflective of the pressures on forecasters to play it safe. Many, he added, prefer not to stray away from the consensus, mindful that bold projections could damage their reputation and potentially lead them to lose their jobs.

Investors should also not overlook the subjective nature of economic forecasting.

Business forecasting

Predictions are heavily influenced by what type of economic theory the forecaster buys into. Projections can differ considerably between, for example, one economist that believes business activity is determined by the supply of money and another that maintains that hefty government spending is bad for the economy. Many conclusions do not come from objective economic analysis. Instead, they are regularly shaped by personal beliefs on how the economy and its participants work.

That inevitably means that the impact of certain policies will be judged differently. Economic forecasting has been around for centuries.

Forecasting Models for National Economic Planning: 2nd Revised and Extended Edit | eBay

However, it was the Great Depression of the s that gave birth to the levels of analysis we see today. After that disaster, a greater onus was placed on understanding how the economy works and where it is heading. This led to the development of a richer array of statistics and analytical techniques. Investopedia uses cookies to provide you with a great user experience.

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